Will TDSB Close Schools Tomorrow?
Monday Jan 26 Odds

With Environment Canada upgrading the forecast to an Orange Weather Warning calling for 20-40cm of snow, the odds of a snow day have skyrocketed.

The Forecast: A Major Winter Storm

The forecast for the Greater Toronto Area has intensified, calling for a significant winter storm event starting Sunday evening.

The primary concern is the snowfall rate of 2-4cm per hour overnight. This intensity ("The Red Zone") often exceeds the ability of city plows to clear residential streets before the 4:00 AM bus loop tests.

The YRDSB "Two-Zone" Pilot

As of January 5, 2026, the York Region District School Board (YRDSB) is piloting a two-zone system. Transportation may be cancelled specifically for:

• Zone 1: Georgina Service Area (North of Ravenshoe Rd)
• Zone 2: South Service Area (Aurora, Newmarket, Markham)

Tactical Note: Even if lake-effect snow hits the North hard, South zone buses might still run. Check your specific zone status.

How Boards Make the Call

The decision to close schools is based on student safety and road conditions. While boards like the TDSB rarely close because 93% of students walk, they did issue full closures as recently as January 15, 2026.

• 01 //Ice Risk: Freezing rain is the #1 "School Killer."
• 02 //Extreme Cold: At wind chills of -28°C or lower, risk of frostbite cancels buses.
• 03 //Plow Timing: If side streets aren't cleared by 4:00 AM, buses cannot safely turn.

When Will We Know?

Decisions are typically announced by 6:00 AM Monday. We will update our odds tracker live as the storm hits the GTA.